Revolution

On January 27 tens of thousands of people in Yemen took to the streets calling for an end to the government of Ali Abdullah Saleh, the president. Today, Al Jazeera reports dozens of activists clashing with government supporters in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen. They chanted "Ali, leave leave" and "Tunisia left, Egypt after it and Yemen in the coming future" outside the Egyptian embassy.

Tawakel Karman, who heads the Yemeni activist group Women Journalists Without Chains, and is also a member of the opposition Islamist party al-Islah, was arrested last week and charged with organizing unlicensed demonstrations without permission. She had been involved in organizing a protest last week of around 2,500 demonstrators who chanted "Oh, Ali, join your friend Ben Ali", a message to the president of Yemen and in support of the departure of the president of Tunisia. Nearly half of Yemen's population lives on less than $2 a day. There is poor access to proper sanitation, less than a tenth of the roads are paved, and tens of thousands have been displaced from their homes by conflict. The government is reported to be very corrupt.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced on Egyptian state television today that he has sworn in a new vice president, former Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman. US state cable 07CAIRO1417 states that according to Article 82 of Egypt's constitution, the vice president should assume presidential powers "if on account of any temporary obstacle the president is unable to carry out his duties."

So who is the new vice president who, in the seemingly imminent departure of President Mubarak may begin ruling Egypt? Jane Mayer asks the question in her article today in the New Yorker, and answers it with information from her book The Dark Side: The Inside Story of How the War on Terror Turned Into a War on American Ideals. "Since 1993 Suleiman has headed the feared Egyptian general intelligence service. In that capacity, he was the C.I.A.’s point man in Egypt for renditions—the covert program in which the C.I.A. snatched terror suspects from around the world and returned them to Egypt and elsewhere for interrogation, often under brutal circumstances."

US State cable 2010-02-25 10CAIRO253 records that Government of Egypt officials, on February 24, expressed concern over the U.S. recommendations at the February 17 UN Human Rights Council's Universal Periodic Review (UPR) of Egypt's human rights record.

Presidential advisor Soliman Awad said the U.S. should focus on principles regarding religious freedom, not conversions and proselytizing which "makes Egyptians suspicious". MFA Deputy Director for Human Rights Omar Shalaby said the GOE was displeased with both the number and the tone of U.S. recommendations, "especially in light of recent bilateral cooperation in the UN Human Rights Council." He said that on instruction from the MFA, Ambassador Shoukry had conveyed this message to Vice President Biden's staff during a meeting to discuss the Vice President's planned upcoming visit to Cairo, and the Egyptian Permanent Representative in Geneva had made these points to the U.S. Mission. Shalaby explained that although European countries made many of the same recommendations, the GOE was "less bothered" because it does not enjoy "the same level of cooperation with the Europeans."

Thousands of people took to the streets today in Jordan demanding that Samir Rifa, the Prime Minister step down. They also demanded the government curb food prices, inflation and unemployment.

For the third consecutive Friday over three thousand activists from the trade unions, the main Islamist opposition group and leftists rallied in the capital.

US State cable 2010-02-23 10DOHA70 details a February 14, 2010 meeting between Senator John Kerry and the Amir of Qatar. In the meeting, the Amir stresses the importance of Israel's return of the Golan Heights to Syria. Hamas "for sure," he said, will accept the 1967 border but will not say it publicly so as to lose popular Palestinian support. The Amir accuses Egypt of delaying an agreement between Israel and Palestine to extend their own role. "According to the Amir, Fatah and Hamas agreed on a memorandum of understanding, but the Egyptians wanted it changed." The Amir offers to deliver a message from the US to Iran.

Syria

US State cable 2010-02-11 10CAIRO197 from one year ago, discusses the arrest on the morning of February 8, of three high-ranking members of the Muslim Brotherhood's Guidance Bureau (the group's 16-member administrative body) along with twelve other lower ranking members

The group includes newly-named Deputy Supreme Guide Mahmoud Ezzat, MB spokesman (one of three recently-named spokesmen for the group) Essam El Eryan, and MB "Mufti" (or religious leader) Abdel Rahman El Barr. A fourth member of the Guidance Bureau, Mohie Hamed, avoided arrest. According to Ikhwanweb, the MB's English-language website, Hamed has been ordered to appear before the Supreme State Security Prosecutor. One of the twelve other MB detainees arrested along with them has reportedly been transferred to a hospital for heart surgery following a heart attack during his arrest. MB sources have reported to the media that those detained have declined to give any statements to investigators. These latest high-profile arrests come amid continued reports of arrests of dozens of rank and file MB members outside of Cairo reportedly as they gather in preparation for elections of the MB's 100-man Shura Council (the group's legislative body) scheduled for April 2010.

US State cable 2010-01-12 10CAIRO64 from one year ago, discusses the use of the State of Emergency, in effect in Egypt almost continuously since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

The Emergency Law

Article 3 of the Emergency Law allows the president to order "placing restrictions on personal freedom of assembly, movement, residence, traffic in specific areas at specific times," and "the arrest of suspects or individuals threatening public security and order," and arrests and searches without implementation of the law of criminal procedures..." In practice, the Interior Ministry carries out "the order" of the President either orally or in writing.

Article 3 also authorizes surveillance of personal messages and confiscation of publications.

US State cable 2009-07-28 09CAIRO1447 describes action taken by the Egyptian government against an amateur poet, bloggers, a novelist and journalists.

An amateur poet

A local government clerk arrested, convicted and jailed for writing unpublished poetry allegedly insulting to President Mubarak, illustrates how proactive security forces and courts can successfully move against a civilian defended by incompetent lawyers. In late June, the Arab Network for Human Rights Information (ANHRI) issued a statement that police arrested XXXXXXXXXXXXXX in April for defaming Mubarak in a poem, and a local court subsequently sentenced him to three years in prison. According to the statement, the court set bail at LE 100,000 (15,000 USD) pending appeal, and since XXXXXXXXXXXX could not afford that sum, he remained in jail. Skilled Cairo-based lawyers from ANHRI appealed the case, and a Minya appeals court acquitted XXXXXXXXXXX July 8; he was released July 20. XXXXXXXXXXXX might still be in jail if his original defense lawyers had not sought help.

US State cable 2010-02-17 10CAIRO213 documents a communication from a human rights activist (name redacted) to the US government discussing torture in Egypt and how best to address it.

On February 10, XXXXXXXXXXXX urged the U.S. to focus on quiet diplomatic approaches to the GOE on combating torture as our top human rights priority. XXXXXXXXXXXX believed such diplomacy would be more successful than efforts on other human rights issues. XXXXXXXXXXXXX advised that a series of discreet diplomatic approaches, as opposed to public statements, would be most effective in securing GOE agreement to combat torture. He said he has been in contact with diplomats from EU countries to encourage them to make similar approaches to the GOE.

XXXXXXXXXXX was pessimistic that the GOE would pass significant political legislation, other than the human trafficking law, before the 2011 residential elections. GOE discussions about lifting the State of emergency and passing a counterterrorism law "are just a distraction," he maintained. XXXXXXXXXXX asserted that MFA and NDP fficials, as well as some journalists in the pro-government press, are embarrassed over the extensive use of torture, and want to see improvements. He believed that a discreet order from the Interior Ministry to stop torture would have a powerful effect, and would be more effective than the passage of legislation expanding the definition of torture and increasing penalties, which the quasi-government National Council for Human Rights and independent NGOs have urged. (Note: A contact confirmed that on February 15 a parliamentary committee rejected legislation proposed by a Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated MP to increase prison terms for torture from the current 3-10 years to 25 years, and extend the definition to cover senior officers who order torture. End note.)

US State cable 2010-01-31 10CAIRO147 from one year ago, outlines Egyptian police brutality and prison conditions as discussed in meetings between A/S Posner and "senior GOE officials".

Credible human rights lawyers believe police brutality continues to be a pervasive, daily occurrence in GOE detention centers, and that SSIS has adapted to increased media and blogger focus on police brutality by hiding the abuse and pressuring victims not to bring cases. NGOs assess prison conditions to be poor, due to overcrowding and lack of medical care, food, clean water, and proper ventilation. Per ref E, following a landmark 2007 sentencing of police officers for assaulting and sodomizing a bus driver, courts have continued to sentence officers to prison terms for brutality.

US State cable 2010-02-23 10CAIRO237 describes the return of Nobel Prize winner and former IAEA Chairman Mohammed El Baradei to Cairo.

El Baradei is seen as an "independent" and viable alternative to a corrupt regime and an ineffectual opposition. However, the mainstream opposition appears reluctant to claim him as their own "consensus candidate." Despite his reluctance to declare himself a candidate, he appears, for now, to have captured the imagination of some section of the secular elite that wants democracy but is wary of the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Popular Support

US State cable 2009-02-23: 09CAIRO326 describes a February 17, 2009 meeting between US Senator Joseph Lieberman and Egyptian President Gamal Mubarak.

Gamal criticizes the Israeli government's decision not to move forward on the Gaza ceasefire without the release of Corporal Shalit. "The various Palestinian factions are due to begin reconciliation talks in Cairo "in about 10 days" and this development will make those discussions more difficult. It makes Egypt look bad, and strengthens Hamas."

Gamal discusses a split within Arab ranks between "moderates" (Egypt and Saudi Arabia) and "radicals" (Syria and Qatar). He is of the opinion that Iran has skillfully exploited the lack of movement towards peace. The best way to thwart Iranian ambitions in the region, according to Gamal, is to reinvigorate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and create a unified
Palestinian government. "The Palestinians need elections, both residential and parliamentary."

US State cable 2009-01-15: 09CAIRO79 is titled SUBJECT: GOE STRUGGLING TO ADDRESS POLICE BRUTALITY. The title is directly contradicted by the cable which concludes The GOE has not begun serious work on trying to transform the police and security services from instruments of power that serve and protect the regime into institutions operating in the public interest.

Torture and police brutality in Egypt are endemic and widespread. The police use brutal methods mostly against common criminals to extract confessions, but also against demonstrators, certain political prisoners and unfortunate bystanders. ... NGO contacts estimate there are literally hundreds of torture incidents every day in Cairo police stations alone. Egyptians are bombarded with consistent news reports of police brutality, ranging from high profile incidents such as accidental but lethal police shootings in Salamut and Aswan this past fall (refs B and C) that sparked riots, to reports of police officers shooting civilians following disputes over traffic tickets. In November 2008 alone, there were two incidents of off-duty police officers shooting and killing civilians over petty disputes.

US state cable 2010-02-24: 10DOHA71 outlines Senator Kerry's meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister, Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani (HBJ) on February 13, 2010. In the meeting, HBJ stresses that it is a mistake to exclude Hamas from Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, equates Egypt to a physician with one patient, and accuses Egypt of having a vested interest in dragging out the talks for as long as possible. He also warned against a US military action against Iran.

HBJ told Senator John Kerry February 13 that "everyone in the region" seems to have a separate plan for moving ahead on the Israeli-Palestinian dispute when only one plan was needed; a plan that both the Israelis and Palestinians would accept and finalize. HBJ underscored that it is a mistake to ignore Hamas in seeking a lasting agreement. Saying this does not mean that Qatar expresses a preference for Hamas, but the Palestinian Authority (PA) cannot sign off on an agreement on behalf of the Palestinians where open divisions exist.

A summary of the US state cables involving Egypt released and tweeted from Wikileaks today. Updates will follow.

2011-01-28 Cable: Egypt displeased with number and tone of U.S. recommendations
2011-01-28 Cable: The Amir of Qatar discusses Syria, Egypt, and Iran
2011-01-28 Cable: Political arrests of Muslim Brotherhood
2011-01-28 Cable: Egypt's Emergency Law
2011-01-28 Cable: Egypt action against, poet, bloggers, novelist and journalists
2011-01-28 Cable: Police torture in Egypt
2011-01-28 Cable: Police brutality and poor prison conditions in Egypt
2011-01-28 Cable: Assessing support for Mohammed El Baradei
2011-01-28 Cable: Qatar on the Israeli-Palestine talks, Egypt and Iran
2011-01-28 Cable: President Mubarak in Washington
2011-02-28 Cable: Torture and police brutality in Egypt are endemic and widespread
2011-01-28 Cable: Mubarak discusses Iran and a "split" within Arab ranks

Earlier this week, Israel was accused of ethnic cleansing of Israeli Arabs based on material in the Palestine Papers (summarized here and here). In the Palestine Papers, documents show Israeli negotiators wanting to cut out Arab occupied parts of Israel and give them to Palestine as they were considered "Palestinian" parts of Israel. Other documents discuss the Palestinian diaspora and Israel's refusal and Palestine's inability to accept them as citizens. US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice suggested they should be transported to Chile and Argentina.

Yesterday, Nurit Kedar aired a report on Channel 4 News telling of a different kind of ethnic cleansing.

Egyptians will be demonstrating today in solidarity with Tunisia and in hope for change within their own government. An Egyptian national holiday in honour of the police, has been renamed 'The Day of Wrath', 'Revolution Day', and the 'Koshari Revolution', the latter referring to a rice, lentils and pasta dish frequently eaten by lower income Egyptians.

There has been a significant amount of support and planning for the protest online, causing the government and police to promise an equally strong suppression. Over 85,000 people have liked the Facebook page for the protest day, calling for a day of revolution against torture, poverty, corruption and unemployment.

April 6 Youth Movement, whose group said they distributed over 150,000 flyers for the event, had at least three members arrested last week for distributing pamphlets, according to Egypt's al-Masry al-Youm. Almost half of Egypt's 80 million people live on less than or just above USD$2 a day. The protesters are calling for a raise of minimum wage to 1200 pounds, linking wages to prices, getting rid of the Interior Minister, and abolishing the state of emergency that Egypt has imposed since 1981.

Recently a Facebook friend featured an unfamiliar flag as his profile picture; a red crescent held in a vivid red background. Then, alternative news headlines emerged about major turmoil in the country of Tunisia. Next thing I knew, my friend was participating in the civil unrest that broke out there. Through the window opened by social media, I began to feel the outrage and intensity experienced by many people on the other side of the world. A quote from the film V for Vendetta came to me; “Remember, remember the fifth of November; the gunpowder, treason, and plot!” The surreal reports and rapidly changing scenery reported by my friend somewhat blurred the line between reality and fiction.

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Protests against government corruption in Albania have left 3 people dead and 55 injured, according to an AP report.

Tensions that have been building for months between the government and opposition Socialists came to a head after a top minister was forced to resign this week amid an alleged corruption scandal.

More than 20,000 people hit the streets Friday to demand that Prime Minister Sali Berisha call early elections after the country's deputy prime minister, Ilir Meta, resigned. Opposition supporters battled riot police outside Berisha's office in Tirana, and health officials said three people were shot dead and 30 civilians and 24 policemen and National Guard were injured.

Clashes broke out Friday when several hundred protesters broke away from the main group and started attacking a riot police cordon. Chanting "Get out, Get out!" some protesters overturned and torched cars, smashed paving stones and hurled them at riot police and reached the steps of the government building.

"The lesson from what's happening in Tunisia is that (Arab leaders) won't be able to hide any more behind the Islamist threat argument."

-Amel Boubekeur

If Tunisians are protesting for freedom, not religion, what role did Wikileaks and online social networks play in mobilizing Arab populations to throw off the shackles of authoritarian, repressive, and corrupt regimes? Are our western institutions responsible for the waves of protest threatening to drown capitals in the Middle East?.